When Will Arizona Open Up Again
Researcher Analyzes Arizona COVID-19 Spread Models for Determination-Makers
The following information regarding the spread of COVID-19 in Arizona was prepared by Joe Gerald, Medico, PhD, a researcher at the Mel and Enid Zuckerman College of Public Health (MEZCOPH) at the University of Arizona. This data has also been reviewed by other MEZCOPH faculty.
This data were obtained from the Arizona Section of Health Services COVID-xix webpage and reflect conditions in Arizona as of March 4, 2022.
This information is intended to help guide our response to the outbreak. It is non intended to predict how this pandemic will evolve. Rather, this model extrapolates what might occur if current conditions remain unchanged. Equally regional authorities and healthcare providers respond, their actions are expected to mitigate the worst consequences of this pandemic.
COVID-nineteen Illness Outbreak Forecast
Arizona Country and Pima County
Updated March 4, 2022
Disclaimer: This information represents my personal views and not those of The Academy of Arizona, the Zuckerman Higher of Public Health, or any other government entity. Any opinions, forecasts, or recommendations should be considered in conjunction with other corroborating and conflicting data. Updates can be accessed at https://publichealth.arizona.edu/news/2021/covid-19-forecast-model.
Figure 1. COVID-xix Cases per 100,000 Residents per Week in Arizona March 1, 2020 – February 27, 2022.
For the calendar week ending Feb 27th, 6590 Arizonans were diagnosed with COVID-xix, a 47% decrease from the 12378 cases reported final week. New cases are being diagnosed at a rate of at 91 cases per 100K residents per week (Figure 1). The manual rate has fallen beneath the high threshold for the first fourth dimension since July 2021. The country will likely fall below the threshold separating substantial and moderate manual next calendar week, <50 cases per 100K residents per week. Rates are highest amongst those >65 years of age and lowest among those <15 years of age, 119 versus sixty cases per 100K residents, respectively (Figure 2a following page).
Arizona'south new case ranking fell to xixth place this week with the nation's leaders being Idaho (576), Montana (358), Alaska (307), West Virginia (270), and Washington (232). The CDC'south updated community levels rating places all Arizona counties except Yuma and La Paz at medium risk. When at medium chance, the CDC does non deem community masking to be necessary, YMMV.
Infection risk is highest in crowded, poorly ventilated indoor spaces where unmasked people spend prolonged periods of time. Risk can be lowered by ensuring high levels of vaccination among attendees, requiring rapid COVID-19 testing earlier entry, and requiring KN-94 or amend masking. When ≥2 of these practices are required and community transmission levels are low, the infection risk is also depression but not quite zippo.
According to the CDC, 43% of Arizona adults and 59% of its seniors have obtained a third dose booster. The CDC recommends everyone ≥12 years who received Pfizer chief sequence should receive a booster; ≥18 years if they received the Moderna primary sequence. Notwithstanding, the ADHS Vaccine Dashboard shows weekly vaccine doses delivered cruel to 40K doses last week indicating progress has mostly stalled. Low booster rates, depression prior infection rates, and waning immunity amid the elderly poses a risk of continued hospitalizations and deaths despite improving overall conditions.
Effigy 2a. COVID-19 Weekly Incidence in Arizona by Age Group February 20 – 27, 2022
Figure 2a shows a ii-fold departure in current transmission rates between those <fifteen years and >65 years.
Figure 2b. Cumulative Covid-19 Cases per 100 Arizona Residents by Age Grouping through Feb 27, 2022.
Historically, infection rates have been highest among those 15 – 54 years of historic period and lowest among the young and elderly (Figure 2b). Given the approximate ratio of 2 undiagnosed cases for every known example, well-nigh working-age Arizonans have probable been infected with the SARS-CoV-2 virus at some point during the pandemic.
Effigy 3. Weekly Number of Patients Undergoing Traditional Nasopharyngeal PCR Testing and Associated Per centum Positivity March one, 2020 – February 27, 2022.
Exam positivity continues to fall but remains loftier at 18% (Effigy 3). The traditional PCR testing base has fallen apace with simply about 30K Arizonans being tested concluding calendar week. While estimates are scarce, some number of individuals have likely transitioned to at-abode testing.
Figure 4. Arizona Average Weekly Hospital Ward Census September 1, 2021 – March 1, 2022 (COVID-xix in crimson, non-COVID in dark grey, and available beds in light gray).
For the calendar week ending February 28th, 1124 (xv%) of Arizona'southward 7521 general ward beds were occupied by COVID-19 patients, a 38% decrease from the week prior, 1777 occupied beds (Effigy 4). Another 507 (7%) beds remained available for utilize which is lower than the prior calendar week's 582 available beds. Improvement in count occupancy is overstated due to hospital non-reporting after the ADHS modify to weekly updates. Specifically, 8756 total ward beds were noted on February 24th, just only an average of 7521 total beds were noted for the week ending February 28th. Some 1200 ward beds went missing. Considering this is hard for Dashboard users to detect, cautious is advised. If non-reporting grows information technology could skew the new CDC Community Levels rating due to non-reporting bias. For now, it should at least be recognized that the count of COVID-19 occupied ward beds is no longer exactly comparable to historical estimates. The percent occupancy is less afflicted. This technical point does not materially change the fact that hospital COVID-19 occupancy continues to reject.
Effigy five. Arizona Average Weekly Hospital ICU Census September 1, 2021 – March 1, 2022 (COVID-19 in scarlet, not-COVID in dark grey, and available beds in low-cal gray).
For the week ending Feb 28th, an boilerplate of 270 (nineteen%) of Arizona's 1402 ICU beds were occupied by COVID-nineteen patients, a 32% decrease from last calendar week'due south 395 occupied beds (Figure v). Another 144 (10%) beds remained bachelor for employ which is lower than last week'due south 154 available beds. The 32% decrease in count occupancy overestimates actual improvement due to non-reporting. For example, 1644 total ICU beds were noted on Feb 24th, but only 1402 average beds were noted the calendar week ending February 28th. Therefore, some 240 ICU beds went missing. The aforementioned caveats that apply to ward count occupancy applies to ICU occupancy.
Figure 6. Arizona Influenza Cases in 2021 (blue) versus 5-Year Historical Average (grey)
Seasonal flu cases in Arizona (bluish line) is experiencing a second wind with cases rising markedly this past week. Nonetheless, rates remain beneath the country's 5-year historical average (gray bars, Figure 6). Hospitals should meet fewer COVID-19 admissions but flu cases may decline more slowly than expected over the coming weeks.
Figure 7a. Weekly Arizona COVID-nineteen Deaths March 16, 2020 – Feb 27, 2022.
The week ending Dec 12th has now recorded 565 deaths. This volition be the only calendar week during the Delta - Omicron waves that deaths will reach 500 weekly (Figure 7a). Even so, COVID-19 deaths remain quite loftier past historical standards.
Figure 7b. COVID-nineteen Historic period-Standardized Instance Fatality Rate March 22, 2020 – January 23, 2022 (October 25, 2020 case distribution).
For some reason, the ADHS Dashboard does not seem to be updating the cumulative tally of COVID-19 deaths. Last week, the Dashboard reported 27931 deaths; this week it reports 27708. When I tabulated data from my update this calendar week, I have 28607 cumulative deaths. The age-standardized case fatality rate has leveled off at 0.4% from its prior rate of 1.five% and may tick up slightly before reaching a new steady state (Effigy 7b).
Pima County Outlook
Figure 8. COVID-19 Cases per 100,000 Residents per Week in Pima County March 2, 2020 – February 27, 2022.
For the week ending Feb 27th, 1028 Pima County residents were diagnosed with COVID-xix, a 54% decrease from the initial tally of 2218 cases terminal calendar week. New cases are being diagnosed at 98 cases per 100K residents per week (Effigy eight).
Figure 9. COVID-xix Weekly Incidence in Pima County by Age Group February twenty - 27, 2022.
Transmission by age group is shown in Effigy 9.
Summary
- Arizona's new example charge per unit has finally fallen into the substantial transmission category, l - 100 cases per 100K residents per week. Rapid improvements may continue for an boosted number of weeks that volition quickly drive us into the moderate hazard category, 10 - l cases per 100K residents per week.
- Every bit of February 27th, new cases were beingness diagnosed at a rate of 91 cases per 100K residents per week. Instance rates remain higher up the CDC threshold for high transmission in Navajo, Apache, Cochise, Greenlee, Graham, Coconino, La Paz, and Gila counties (Appendix Effigy 1A). No county has achieved moderate transmission.
- During March more institutions and individuals will be relaxing their COVID-nineteen mitigation practices. For those who are good for you, vaccinated or recovered, normalization will pose little run a risk. Those who have personal wellness conditions, family members with personal health conditions, or those who interact with the vulnerable should continue to mitigate until transmission levels fall farther.
- COVID-xix hospital occupancy in the wards and ICUs continues to fall along with case rates. Access to care will continue to be constrained by COVID-19 occupancy, influenza cases, and the backlog of postponed care. For those looking for a marker of normalcy, hospitals won't be dorsum to "normal" until available beds approach 30%, typical summer availability levels – information technology varies throughout the year.
- ADHS Dashboard users, behave in listen that the total number of ward beds (capacity) has historically been around 8750; the ICU capacity has been around 1640 beds. This will give you a crude guide to non-reporting or shifts in occupancy equally yous follow the data.
- At to the lowest degree 28607 Arizonans have lost their lives to COVID-xix. Weekly totals in the low-400s are likely end soon as the Omicron surge resolves.
- Higher than expected hospitalization and mortality could linger owing to the combination of low tertiary shot booster uptake among the elderly, low prior infection rates among this group, and more often than not waning immunity. It volition non exist enough to overcrowd hospitals but those who take not obtained a third shot booster should still consider doing so even though conditions are improving.
- Is BA.2 here in Arizona? According to the TGen Dashboard the BA.two variant is unexpectedly receding. It is in one case again <five% of sequenced cases. So, I guess I'll have to eat my prior words about it condign the dominant variant over the coming calendar month. Beats me? https://pathogen.tgen.org/covidseq-tracker/
- Annotation: This will exist the final weekly update; no more are planned. If there is another major change/threat then the reports volition probable resume. For now, I'm taking a breather to recharge and regroup.
Forecast reports to date, available as PDFs
Download PDF to view additional charts of Arizona counties, available in appendix of report.
March 4
February 4 | eleven | 18 | 25
January vii | xiv | 21 | 28
2021 Reports
December 3 | ten | 17 | 24
Nov 5 | 12 | 19 | 26
Oct one | 8 | 15 | 22
September 10 | 17 | 24
August 6 | thirteen | 20 | 27
July xiii | 16 | 23 | 30
May 7 | 21
April nine | 23
March 5 | 12 | 19 | 26
February v | 12 | nineteen | 26
January iv | eight | 15 | 22 | 29
2020 Reports
December 4 | 11 | 18 | 28
November 4 | 11 | 20 | 27
October 2 | 9 | 16 | 21 | 28
September 4 | 11 | xviii | 25
August 7 | 14 | 21 | 28
July 3 | ten | 17 | 24 | 31
June 5 | 12 | 19 | 26
May 1 | 8 | 15 | 22 | 29
April 8 | 13 | 23 | 28
March 17 | 22 | 28
Based on what we know now near this pandemic, nosotros support guidelines for social distancing to slow the spread of the virus and urge everyone to follow the recommendations provided past the Centers for Disease Command and Prevention (CDC) to protect yourself, your family, your neighbors, and your employees. Please heed the recommendations as provided by the CDC.
COVID covid coronavirus virus covid19 corona forecast model
Source: https://www.publichealth.arizona.edu/news/2022/covid-19-forecast-model
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